…ELSA REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY……RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE…***
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the west coast of Florida from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.***
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay.***
A Tropical Storm Warning continues in effect for the Dry Tortugas, the west coast of Florida from Flamingo to the south of Egmont Key and from north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River; and for the coast of Georgia from the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to Altamaha Sound. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas tonight and early Wednesday and along the Georgia coast by late Wednesday.***
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from west of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.*** A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South Carolina. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday.
Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast should monitor the progress of Elsa.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office – www.weather.gov
At 8 p.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located about 100 miles (165 km) south-southwest of Tampa, Florida. It’s moving toward the north near 10 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later tonight and early Wednesday morning. Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf Coast by late Wednesday morning and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday.
Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Tampa Bay indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Buoy 42013, located due north of Elsa, recently measured a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) gusting to 47 mph (76 km/h). A wind gust to 43 mph (69 mph) was recently measured on North Captiva Island. Some additional slight strengthening will be possible overnight. The weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late Wednesday morning.
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:- Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay…3 to 5 ft- Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor…2 to 4 ft- Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River…2 to 4 ft- Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…1 to 3 ft- Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass…1 to 2 ft- Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC…1 to 2 ftElsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week:* Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula…3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.* Across the rest of Florida…2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in considerably isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.* Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding.* Across coastal portions of North Carolina into Southeastern Virginia…1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.
A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 11 p.m. EDT – www.hurricanes.gov+3