A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
- West coast of Florida from the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
- West coast of Florida from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River
- Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
- North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
- Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
- Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Gulf coast of Florida in the warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight
and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday.
Interests in southeastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office – www.weather.gov
At 2 p.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located inland over north Florida about 105 miles (170 km) west of Jacksonville. It’s moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected this evening, followed by a faster
Northeast ward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Continued weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land.
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Aripeka, FL to Aucilla River…2 to 4 ft
- Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Aripeka, FL including Tampa Bay…1 to 3 ft
- Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River…1 to 3 ft
- Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC…1 to 2 ft
Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week:
- Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula…3 to 6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches today, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
- Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding.
- Across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia…1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.
- Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.
A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 5 p.m. EDT – www.hurricanes.gov