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<\/figure>\n\n\n\nFlorida should dodge the tropical onslaught over the next five to seven days. However, a brutal weekend is ahead for the Louisiana coast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The key feature on the map is Tropical Storm Ida, which developed in the western Caribbean south of Cuba and west of Jamaica. This system is organizing quickly as it moves northwest, and Ida is likely to strengthen to Hurricane Ida by Friday evening as it passes close to the western tip of Cuba.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ida will continue moving northwest across the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, steered by a strong ridge of high pressure centered over Georgia and the Carolinas. On this track, Ida will likely near the Louisiana coast late Sunday or early Monday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Models shift to the east, but Florida will likely dodge the storm<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Over the last few days, computer model guidance for Ida has shifted east, but is now tightly clustered on an eventual landfall point somewhere between Houston and Gulfport. Understandably, this has caused some consternation that further shifts east are imminent and will put Florida in the line of fire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The good news for Florida, and bad news for Louisiana, is that this model mayhem has been due to fuzzy math regarding exactly where a low-level circulation would form along TD 9\u2019s axis of broad rotation, and not due to big changes in location or strength of the steering high-pressure system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In general, predicting where a circulation will form along a trough is a hard problem for which models have poor skill; picking where steering ridges will be is an easier problem for which models have more predictive power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Thus, with a low-level circulation now developed along the northern extent of the wave and a steering environment like that observed during 2020\u2019s Louisiana hurricane strikes, model consensus and forecast confidence in a track towards the west-central Gulf Coast is improving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Some forecast changes are inevitable, but Florida can for the most part relax as I do not expect significant changes to the overall predicted track of Ida in the next few days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Some enhanced rain chances are possible in the Panhandle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ida intensification one of the most aggressive ever predicted by NHC<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n But what a dangerous track that is for Louisiana. Ida\u2019s expected path aligns nearly perfectly with an avenue of the warmest and deepest waters in the Atlantic extending from the northwestern Caribbean into the north-central Gulf, including a passage over the notorious Loop Current. Sea surface temperatures on final approach to Louisiana are in the upper 80s, pushing 90 degrees in spots. Coupling this extraordinary oceanic heat potential with abundant mid-level moisture and an outflow jet to the north of the storm over the weekend is a recipe for rapid intensification into landfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As of 5 p.m. Thursday, the NHC intensity forecast calls for a head-spinning 30 knots of intensification between Saturday and Sunday mornings, up to strong Category 2 intensity. Usually, early NHC advisories run a little conservative on intensity, but in recognition of this explosive environment, they\u2019ve stopped being polite and gotten real: TD 9\u2019s initial intensity forecast is one of the most aggressive the NHC has ever issued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This forecast may yet be too low, and landfall at Category 3 or Category 4 intensity is a good bet. Time appears to be the only real limit on rapid intensification processes in the Gulf, once engaged on Saturday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So, if you\u2019re reading this from Louisiana, I regret to inform you that the time to start preparing for a major hurricane landfall is now. It is too early to know who will take the hardest hit, but everyone in southern Louisiana needs to be taking a hard look, right now, at what you would do in a worst-case scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ida is going to come at you faster than you think, and there won\u2019t be much time to react.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" One of the traditions of the late, great Dr. Bill Gray \u2014 forefather of seasonal hurricane prediction and great-great-grand-doctoral advisor to the WeatherTiger \u2014 was ringing a bell on August… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":50195,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[459],"tags":[611],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thelehighacresgazette.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50194"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thelehighacresgazette.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thelehighacresgazette.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thelehighacresgazette.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thelehighacresgazette.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50194"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thelehighacresgazette.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50194\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":50196,"href":"https:\/\/thelehighacresgazette.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50194\/revisions\/50196"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thelehighacresgazette.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50195"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thelehighacresgazette.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50194"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thelehighacresgazette.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50194"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thelehighacresgazette.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50194"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}