Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 230 PM EST Mon Nov 15 2021
.DISCUSSION… High pressure over north Florida this afternoon will shift east into the Atlantic through mid week as it extends back to the southwest across north Florida and the southeastern states with pleasant dry weather and warming temperatures expected as the low level flow veers from northeast to east. During Thursday and Thursday night models continue to indicate increasing rain chances (Pops 20-60% from north to south) as moisture increases from the south and a weak disturbance along a frontal boundary across the Florida Straits drifts north into south Florida with the highest rain chances setting up from the I-4 corridor south.
On Friday additional showers (Pops 20-30%) will be possible as a shortwave trough and weak front moves across the area during the day. As the front moves south it will push the deeper moisture mentioned above back to the south of the region as we move into the upcoming weekend.