(TDY-SUN)… A rather active few hours across our southern coastal zones with a few strong thunderstorms developing overnight. There were some storms that showed strong rotation hail signatures on radar, but have fallen apart as they moved onshore. This is all ahead of a weak cold front stretching across the Florida Peninsula and a developing area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico while upper level troughiness persists.
During the day today, almost all of the ingredients to support severe storms will be present…ample moisture, wind shear, lift, but we will be missing instability. Cloud coverage is expected to limit convection activity through most of the day, nonetheless, there is still potential for rotating storms given the deep layer wind shear available with the main threat laying along and south of the I-4 corridor. Additionally, gusty winds, isolated tornadoes, and heavy downpours with training storms could bring some localized flooding.
By this evening, the low pressure system occludes with a warm front pushing north and a cold front moving across behind it. The low pressure exits our CWA through Saturday. A drier and cooler airmass will move in behind it and high pressure ridging builds aloft. Temperatures will gradually decrease through the weekend from the mid 50s to upper 60s this morning, down to the mid 40s to the mid 50s by Sunday morning.
Moreover, strong winds over the Gulf waters will bring hazardous boating conditions with winds now forecast to reach advisory/warning levels today and through the weekend, therefore, the appropriate headlines have been issued. The risk for rip currents will also increase going into the weekend for the beaches from Pinellas to Lee counties.