Written by Jonathan Erdman and Chris Dolce Courtesy of Weather.com
The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season launched with a pair of pre-season named storms, Tropical Storms Alberto and Beryl. It was only the third year to have two named storms form in the Atlantic Basin prior to the “official” kickoff of the season, June 1.
We avoided a repeat of 2012 in May. However, the first full week of June 2013 has the potential to deliver the season’s first tropical depression or storm. Let’s break down what we’re watching.
“Andrea” This Week?
Showers and thunderstorms have been festering at times in the southern Gulf of Mexico and northwest Caribbean over the last few days (shown by the the most vivid orange and red shadings in the satellite image to the right). Furthermore, surface pressures remain low in the southern Gulf of Mexico.
For now, this festering area is disorganized, and winds aloft over the southern Gulf of Mexico have not been favorable for development.
That said, numerical models which meteorologists use to diagnose the forecast have been hinting at the potential for a more consolidated area of low pressure to develop in the vicinity of the southern Gulf of Mexico for several days now.
If the “festering area” of convection consolidates and persists near surface low pressure, then there is some chance that a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form this week. No matter whether this happens or not, winds aloft will steer this entity towards Florida late in the week.
As you can see from the image at the right, this is a common path for tropical systems in the month of June.
(MORE: A Typical June in the Atlantic Basin)
One thing that we do know for certain is that no matter whether this system develops or not, it appears that plenty of tropical moisture will continue to move towards the Florida Peninsula. This will likely result in periods of heavy rainfall and localized flooding into Thursday across the Sunshine State. In addition, a threat of isolated tornadoes could also develop by Thursday if the atmosphere becomes unstable enough. Florida’s Gulf Coast beaches will see increasing surf and dangerous rip currents.
The Gulf low will eventually get pulled northward ahead of a frontal system moving through the eastern states Friday into the weekend. This could enhance rainfall along the East Coast during this timeframe.
(MAP: Florida Radar)
- This system no matter whether it develops or not will then track towards Florida by late week.
- Locally heavy rainfall in the Florida Peninsula this week. High surf, rip currents at Gulf Coast beaches. Potential for isolated tornadoes.
(MORE: Expert Analysis)
Check back with us at weather.com, The Weather Channel, and Weather Underground for the latest on this potential Gulf tropical threat.
This is a good opportunity to review your hurricane preparedness plan. Do you live in an evacuation zone? Do you know your evacuation route? Check out our WeatherREADY hurricane section for tips to help you prepare for the season.