Tropical Storm Isaac is centered along the North Coast of East Cuba, about 340 miles from Key West Florida. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph and the storm is moving to the northwest at 17 mph.
The increased forward speed will bring the effects of Isaac to the SW peninsula a little faster than previously projected, but there is little change to the components of our stormy forecast.
Isaac is still poorly organized, but conditions will become more favorable for strengthening as the center pulls slowly away from the Cuban Coast tonight.
The very warm waters of the Florida Straits will help Isaac strengthen into a hurricane Sunday, and the storm could bring 80-90 mph winds into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
Latest track models project Isaac will pass about 100-150 miles off the Southwest Florida Coast early Monday. If trends continue, there is a growing chance that the hurricane force winds may stay just offshore our coast.
However, Isaac is a very large storm with tropical storm force winds (over 40 mph) extending 200 miles from the center.
Unless there is an unexpected change in course, we are sure to experience some very windy weather.
LOCAL EFFECTS
Approaching weather with Isaac will spread from south to north across the area during the day Sunday. Winds and rains will increase Sunday night and peak on Monday morning.
Sustained winds of 30-50 mph are likely as the storm goes by, and peak winds may exceed 65 mph which could cause widespread power outages.
Frequent showers and squalls with Isaac may bring three day rainfall totals of between 5-10 inches.
The strong rotation in the atmosphere associated with the storm will also spin up a few isolated tornadoes. Offshore winds will prevent any serious tidal issues as Isaac approaches from the South.
However, once the storm passes, strong south and southwest winds on the underside of Isaac’s circulation will cause tides to rise about 3-5 feet above normal Monday.
Weather will subside on Tuesday with diminishing winds and tides, though a few gusty squalls may linger.