In the tropics, Ernesto is gradually strengthening in the eastern Caribbean. The storm will likely continue its strengthening trend while it moves west, staying south of the main island chain from Cuba to Puerto Rico.
There appears to be two main scenarios with Ernesto: one, the storm tracks farther south and heads for Central America and potentially the Bay of Campeche, or two, Ernesto finds a weakness in the ridge and moves toward the Yucatan Channel and perhaps the central Gulf. It appears both of these scenarios keep Ernesto away from Southwest Florida.
There is also a new tropical storm in the far eastern Atlantic today.
Tropical Storm Florence developed this morning with maximum sustained winds at 40 mph. Florence has a rocky road ahead of it with lots of dry air and wind shear downstream.
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for Florence to weaken back to a depression early next week as the storm continues its westward motion.
As of now, Florence is no threat to any land areas through the next five days.